AVAX price on the brink of sliding to $15 despite on-chain frenzy

AVAX price finds itself at a critical technical juncture, with price action flashing bearish signals despite strong on-chain activity on Avalanche.

After a steep downtrend that bottomed in mid-March, Avalanche (AVAX) price reversed from a double bottom pattern and began consolidating within an ascending channel, maintaining bullish momentum through the end of the month, as confirmed by a rising RSI.

Since then, however, the price action has developed into what looks like a descending triangle pattern, with price now hovering near key horizontal support. Importantly, AVAX price has also broken below the ascending channel’s lower boundary, suggesting a potential shift in market structure from bullish consolidation to emerging bearish pressure.

The price is now at a critical make-or-break level, where the confluence of horizontal support (~$17.80 – $18.50), the lower boundary of the descending triangle, and the recently broken ascending channel support intersect. This zone represents a major decision point for the market. A break below this confluence area would likely confirm the descending triangle breakdown, opening the door for a move toward $15.00.

With RSI nearing oversold and price sitting at multi-level support, the next few daily candles will be crucial in determining whether AVAX resumes its bearish trend or attempts a bullish recovery from this confluence support zone.

This bearish price action is unfolding despite Avalanche showing strong on-chain activity.

The recent surge in transactions — largely driven by arena.trade, a launchpad that allows users to mint tradeable ERC–404–style tokens directly from X posts using a bonding-curve mechanism — has significantly boosted network metrics. Notably, the 7-day moving average of daily transactions has surpassed 1 million, its highest in over a year.

However, this spike in activity hasn’t been accompanied by a sustained increase in active addresses, indicating that a smaller group of users is driving most of that volume.